It is a non mandatory consequence of the creation of new categories of products, services, flows, trades and tribes. Works the same on administration or non profit organization, communities etc...

It is often disguised under the mask of volatility.

Confusion again, that s to say as we saw it ambiguity, and its collateral damage of complexity.

All VUCA planets aligned for the first time, not for the best.

Proximity of the 2 (V and U) requires some practical ilustration of the difference within management areas.

Metaphor of the U-suite (Take 1)

Sub element of VUCA alignment

Uncertainty hint : What is it ?

Is it a whole or a part?

How much do we know about it? See ?

Do we have enough data, and context understanding?

To act or react.

PDCA is one simple tool able to extract simplicity out of uncertainty.

We propose to look at it as another illustration of Decision axis.

It may fit to any marketing or investment scopes as well.

To the point where individuals and sub part of organization get frozen.

Cold feet, put on the ice instead of the front burner..

Equals Zero mobility.

Uncertainty is another root cause of many road blocks, mistakes (fair enough), and above everything : multiple rework, useless reset loops into processes, and delays, death of projects

Problem becoming : how can we mitigate that risk and balance the collateral damages of the direct costs.

"Take a bet " is a nice advice, but just materializing the risk, revealing the fate, clearing some ambiguity about uncertain end, but not a VUCA practical solution per se.

Problem

Uncertainty is not a given.

Just joking.

At least this is the only certain fact about it.

It increases the pressure put on every part og an organization.Bad news, we are regularly escaping from the stage of awareness,....as a matter of fact : denial is the dominant behavior when addressing ambiguity.

I witness and measure with objectivity that even in places where empowerment is quite effective, especially in so called agile and lean organization, it is not at all ambiguity proof.

For sure field observation and reality checks so famous within Lean tools ("Gemba walk" concept and actions) are helping to clarify some blur points, or distorsion between feelings and facts.

The efficiency of a decision relies upon the quality, the actuality and accuracy of the data brought to the scene and stage.Under sthe spotlights and scrutinity.

However the output of the decision often carries its own shae of new ambiguity.

Did we agree for a test or did we approve a solution ? does it apply into the tested scope or can we extrapolate application? Is it a temporary approval or a new policy ?

Solution is therefore to educate decidors to the same process control about this last step of problem solving or improvement, or new products reviews, budget decison and so much more.

Was the decidor the official responsible or accountable of the decision made?

Solution is to refer more often to RACI tools describing roles and responsibilities, in order to elimiante ambiguity about people consulted, but not legitimate as far as governance, to make a decision.It is a frequent case with experts, highly legitmate to make a recommandation, and statements, but not to take the decisions.Because of collateral effects that experts cannot see or put into perspective.

As long as collective intelligence does not reach a "meta-level", that is to say the ability to change the decision-making processes, cheap communication costs do not solve the issue of decision speed and transparency.

And work outside of silos. In a free zone.

These last two elements are the only factors of enthalpy, that is the capacity to bond and link all kinds of energy positive relations, drving the global effectiveness and sustainability of any system.

Because most remain to the basic level, companies keep adding staff and control mean.

Wrong pick and high cost of re-insurance.

Simplification of the decision making process is a very efficient grid : it can count how many gates of decision and how many people are involved along end to end processes.

And it is easy to set objectives of over 50% less complexity and numbers of actors involved into the decision.

How do we do it ? By moving as many as posible from Responsibilities to Consultation status.

It is another practical application of the famous "Empowerment".

This shoud be helpful for those who struggle to translate the word into daily illustration.

Uncertainity is the daring selection device of innovation, both mothers of invention (triute to Franck Zappa, a unique and brillant master of complexity and more) and murderer.of early stages innovation.

To the point where individuals and sub part of organization get frozen.

Cold feet, put on the ice instead of the front burner..

Equals Zero mobility.

Uncertainty is another root cause of many road blocks, mistakes (fair enough), and above everything : multiple rework, useless reset loops into processes, and delays, death of projects

For what ?

Understanding, deciding, clogging decision gated processes with stressful roadblocks and delays.

At very early stages, like gates 1 or 2 of innovaion funnels, even in agile development modes.

Problem becoming : how can we mitigate that risk and balance the collateral damages of the direct costs of uncertainty ?

Reducing the waste and the insurance costs to face it with limited exposure and liability.

Showing some probabilities of the "true north" location, axis and zones, while navigting through the misty partly frozen waters.

Sub element of VUCA alignment

Uncertainty leads : Is it a suite of decisions for new directions or external events changes?

Or is it a distortion view of a cube? Like wrong use of extracted data?

Datascience results mystified for business executives?

Did we have enough data, and context understanding, or the right viewpoint to make a fair representation of the business reality?

Can we decide with so much uncertainty?

A plan identifying the set of 1% individual decidors and all governance instances and visiting and convincing each of them individually and as groups in decision making stages.

Solution

Moving our drilling machine along the U dimension.

I wish this episode is 4 U indeed

As a matter of fact the english U transforms and translates into a I in french.

Spanish and italian as well..

Still not following the acronym order, but pursuing with the second letter.

No piece of cake.

At first sight, it seems useless to act on uncertainty within the framework of transformation, and even more when leveraging simplification.

It took us 2 years to change our minds.And find some interesting leads and valuable hacking zones.

For many, when meeting VUCA world definition for the first time, a shortcuit tends to be that nowadays all became uncertain. Like a fate, or a modern curse.

Therefore not much could be done.

Solutions do exist, not 100% able to transform your organization into an uncertainty proof building or eco-system, although fitting into a special place, at least of my own customized toolbox of simplification.

With a very natural counterpart and balance by the name and domain of agility.

This hack is exposing early stage lessons learned, and some innovative approach proposals.

Practical Impact

Organization Ambiguity undermines and slow down decision making .

It reduces agility.

So any reduction of ambiguity, that translates into clarity about what to do and about boundaries : what not to do, limits of compliance or empowerment, is creating additional agility.

U dimension is the "call for simplification" axis and a catalyst to tackle the VUCA global set of constraints, and get some perceived and objective relief on daylife at work.

Benefits is to take stress out of the system and people's mind.

Uncertainty is possible to handle although it can be measured and reduced or eliminated in a couple of elements of the business value chain of activities.

Especially before and after Decision Gates.

Reducing ambiguity does help to lower down uncertainty.

Reducing complexity as well.

That is the rational for the sequence we chose and followed, that is to say some " CAUV " roadmap, to have a positive effect and drive on VUCA.

Looking at uncertainty, we also see that it reveals (after facts or during projection worksops such as Futue state or ideal state formal vision design) additonal elements at the root of complexity, into the "pivots" , and difficultyto re-align application of decisions as the reactive mode, is made of many dimensions and viewpoint angles.

Especially in agile frameworks.

Metaphor of the U-suite (Take 2)

Photo FJ Leconte 2017

Uncertainty (containing ambiguity about true north and some volatility in change plans, complexity for alignments too)

Photo FJ Leconte 2017

Challenges

1. Resignation : executive and managers ofteh believe that decision is the onl and "unevitable" answer to uncertainty.

While it is likely so on short term firefighting or overload contaxt.

Or a belief strong enouch there is nothing else to do.

2.Overcome natura fear : confusion do exists between agility presented as an excuse for unprepared and not communicated tactical pivots (into a stage gates process for instance).

It is fair to recognize a change in data or in decisions, although accountabiity should go back to decidors about simplification of the number of options chosen in advance and revealed into contengency plan, back up plans and back up people namely defined in RACI tools.

3. Anti-KM : "We, I don't know what you don't know " plus any other possible combination of U and I. Knowledge Management is a skill that can be developped.

As it is a skill about dealing with complexity, and capability to share it and give the feeling it is simpler than it is.

So to make it accessible to a greater happy few and actionable to a wider scope of people or business cases.

Paradox is about something looking complex, and uncertain, but giving the sense that it is possible de read, or decipher, or break the code, plus put some process control and triggers for re-alignment at a reasonable premium cost.

It has very little or nothing to do with ambiguity, to the contrary.

It is somehow in the range of the idea of "Anti -Fragile " developped by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

It is difficult for many relying upon so called "rational " or "cartesian" analysis, to accept that his statements about "Things than gain from disorder" are not easy contrarian position but a real alterntive grid to break the code of environments driven by a fair amount of uncertainty.

Science and economy proved that very few real world systems are governed following these rationalty rules,

For it is only an effect of us as simplistic obervers, especially back in the 16th century.

While human behavior, escpecially as groups dynamics, barely drive or follow with rational decisions.

First Steps

Uncertainty is the mother of the non decision.

The rational (and opposite) for high and rapid assets returns requests, hedges, ventures and alike.

Uncertainty is a frequent brake too often activated mainy to gain time or to lower the risk of a decision, not as a risk mitigation but as a shield against accountability.

Facts and observation give evidence about how it piles up and blocks decision making processes that are gates and loops plugged into the whole organic system

It is becoming a thick and inefficient nervous network of sensors.

It increases lead time and processes times with frictions, pain points and "W as Waiting", one of the 8 categories of waste.

Overprocessing is a second victim on the crime scene.

Not to mention "Mis-use of human capital/ skills" when the right people are not empowerd and everybody must waith for approval from an overoaded, bottleneck decidor.

Aa a summary of previous sections : 3 practical steps are easy first shots

1. the use of RACI grids, but it needs t go down to a ratio calculation in order to target a 50% reduction of RA steps and people involved (a RACI score), by a transfer to Consulted category, and another move to Informed (easier categry to manage at a time of costless share of information

2. The addition ot formal decision of additional inputs and details such as the scope limits and links to time (temporary or new rules to spread).

Decision must

1. bring clarity about alternative plans

2.reduce ambiguity about the triggers for alternatives to react to uncertainty

3.not add additional ambiguity. Some good complexity is OK if bringing agility to face uncertainty.

It is about anticipation, a much safer game plan for execution than resignation or wish upon a star. Or planets alignment.

3. Training and coaching of executives and managers, all in charge of both teams an decisions to request change management plan inclduing pivots option selection, as well as simpification in Plans A solutions.

We can give many more details about the Uncertainty and Advanced Change Plan Management in further drilling hacks.

I do provide Advanced Time Management to training and simple tools to drive that level of complexity to our transformation leaders.

We hope it is already a lot of food for thoughts and inspiration for your own first step to wash some of the lack of flexibility hurting your decisions workflows.

Next episode will link and bridge to the Volatility elements....stay tuned.